Global Industry Recovery Status in 2024
Global industrial production grew 3.3% year-over-year in 2024, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, marking a return to trend growth after the post-pandemic adjustment. Manufacturing PMI readings averaged above 50 in the United States, Germany, and China during the second half of 2024, signaling expansion in factory activity. The S&P Global Global Manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 in November 2024, the first expansionary reading in several months. The U.S. Census Bureau reported factory shipments rising 4.1% in the third quarter of 2024, supported by semiconductor and automotive output. For more on global manufacturing trends, see the latest analysis from the International Monetary Fund at imf.org.
Employment in manufacturing rose by 173,000 jobs in the U.S. in 2024, with the sector adding positions for the first time since 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings in manufacturing increased 3.7% year-over-year, outpacing inflation in most months. Tesla's Gigafactory Texas and Nevada ramped production in 2024, contributing to a 12% increase in U.S. auto output. The National Association of Manufacturers stated that 78% of manufacturers expected revenue growth in 2025, based on a survey released in late 2024. For current employment and output data, visit the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at bls.gov.
Sector-by-Sector Recovery Timelines
Semiconductor sales rose 18.4% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $628 billion globally, driven by AI chip demand and inventory restocking. The Semiconductor Industry Association reported that global chip sales in November 2024 were up 15.4% compared to the same month a year earlier. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all announced capacity expansions for 2025, with TSMC planning to begin mass production of its 2nm chips in 2025. The industry is expected to fully recover from the 2022-2023 downturn by mid-2025, with capital expenditure rising to $200 billion globally. For semiconductor market data, see the Semiconductor Industry Association at semiconductors.org.
The aerospace and defense sector returned to growth in 2024, with global defense spending reaching $2.3 trillion, a 9.2% increase from 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Boeing delivered 1,081 commercial aircraft in 2024, up from 450 in 2023, as supply chain disruptions eased. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman secured record defense contracts in the third quarter of 2024, supported by U.S. and allied spending increases. The commercial airline sector saw passenger traffic return to 2019 levels by early 2024, with global airline revenues projected at $1.0 trillion for 2024. For defense spending data, visit the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute at sipri.org.
Key Indicators That Signal When Industry Is Coming Back
Three leading indicators confirm the industrial recovery: rising factory orders, increasing capacity utilization, and expanding trade volumes. The U.S. Census Bureau reported durable goods orders up 7.2% in the third quarter of 2024, with transportation equipment orders rising 1